Chandra
So far as the equipment that has not failed yet and the aviation industry, which also goes with most manufacturing of product, that is usually developed in the design stage often with accelerated aging tests. On the electric machine side, for instance, there are standards for accelerating the age of components that provide a baseline and then other standards and methods for providing estimated life expectancy to a level of confidence.
For electrical systems, in general, IEEE performed a number of studies on electrical systems and their causes of failure (since 1955). These are found in IEEE Std 493, "IEEE Recommended Practice for the Design of Reliable Industrial and Commercial Power Systems," also referred to as the 'Gold Book;' and, IEEEE 3006.8, "IEEE Recommended Practice for Analyzing Reliability Data for Equipment Used in Industrial and Commercial Power Systems." Both carry MTBF data on electrical systems - which, I find interesting, have not changed significantly over the years based upon industry surveys and the working groups (both standards have recently been updated and voted on).
There are also quite a few US military guides, handbooks and specifications that are publicly available.
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Howard W Penrose, Ph.D., CMRP
2018 SMRP Chair and
President
MotorDoc LLC
Lombard, Illinois
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Original Message:
Sent: 10-18-2018 05:29 AM
From: Chandra Salim
Subject: Reliability Prediction for equipment that has not failed yet
Dear all professionals,
I met some cases in reliability performance monitoring that calculated using statistics distribution upon equipment's failure history.
And I am now looking for any chance to calculate reliability prediction on equipment that has not failed yet during operation time.
Yes it is referred to use international database such as OREDA, NPRD, EPRD, etc. as common case, yet it is somehow bother my mind that there used to be a way to calculate some aviation equipment which has high MTBF from its fabrication production and has met no failure history at all ever since the fabrication process began.
I am about to get some opinion and experience sharing from all of you.
My best regards
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Chandra Salim
M.Sc.
Bandung, Indonesia
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